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General Discussion > My thoughts...
Replies in this thread : 3
| Author |
Topic : My thoughts... |
umaxwell2000
Website Member
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4/25/2010 : 7:36:21 AM 
My thoughts on Naija as an emerging economy. This is my opinion
The alleged taking over of distressed banks in Nigeria by international companies and the overall overhauling of the industry is a welcoming idea for several reasons. Several international institutions have began to see Nigeria stocks as an emerging market irrespect of its precarious governance, a government that has remained a glutton for disquiet. However the potential of Nigeria remains, especially with its vast oil and mass population, boasting as the 5th most supplier of oil to U.S and Africa’s most populous country. The discovery of oil in this country has been deemed a curse after its translation to a monotonous economy, unable to stretch beyond its economic purlieu, a limitation attributed to successive military dictatorships.
Even today, in the superficially elected democratic government, it is not a surprise that there is rather an apprehension of the government that has left much of the nation in a state of sub humanity. So now there is a visceral understanding in this nation by its people that anything that has to do with the Government is ominous. This could have spurred the opposition against the Governor of the cenral bank to instititute some changes in the banking sector. It is known that even the most ignorant rustic, less a cosmopolitan, will oppose anything that emanates from the abode of the government. It is not the most civil of behaviours towards one’s one government but the grime and dirt present in the government wouldn’t allow anyone to become a bastion of such governance except maybe you are a beneficiary of it. I once encountered an electrochemical engineer who offered a vengeful solution to wipe out all that were part of the government, as in military auto-da-fe, so as to start afresh, and in turn we would have severed the ultimate exemplar. Of course I thought this was a rather radical approach to the problem.
However it is not all bad news. With the successive civilian government, there have been some improvements in freedom of press, opposition killings and economic renaissance. In 2007, Nigeria had the number one stock growth reported in the world. This was hailed by some financial columnist as a portent of Nigeria economy as an emerging market. Also, Gone are the days of slinging of molotov cocktails from rioting and civil disobedience. The last demonstration was regarding passing on power to the second in command since the President had taken ill and had been receiving medical treatment outside the country. This was a very peaceful demonstration, with no rebuff of demonstrators by the scathingly dismissive Military Head of State, as was common in the old days.
These improvements have seen International interest in investemt in the country increase. They see the preening of the Banks by the Governor, by pumping millions of dollars to stimulate growth and sacking and replacement of Bank’s CEO’s as a the right path to tread to the creation of an ivestemtn friendly environment. This has allowed investors to ignore the Nation’s other woes, and anoint the 2007 columnist’s opinion as a prescient.
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Lanre Jimoh
Website Member
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5/10/2010 : 7:58:25 PM
Maxwell,
thanks for sharing your thoughts on the Nigerian economy and its potential. My dear friend, I admire your interest and your affinity for 'big words'. Not to take away from the gravity of your prose, I would like to see what others think about Nigeria's emerging market.
My guess is that our members (particularly US based) are not as informed about the subject or are just plain apathetic towards this discussion forum. We need to find a way to drive traffic to this page specifically. I know our capable webmaster, Steve, is working on something as we speak.
Back to the growing business opportunities in Nigeria, our keynote speaker at the upcoming DNPT annual conference in DC (July1-3, 2010) will be talking about opportunities in the health sector specifically. Look out for the announcements. See you all there! |
1k001
Website Member
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6/2/2010 : 3:24:59 AM
You've raised a number of good points OP. However it seems to me that you're viewing our beloved naija's economic situation through rose coloured glasses. While the developments in the banking sector are somewhat laudable a deeper problem exists that I don't believe banks can do anything about.
Before I attempt to articulate what I feel the problem is, I must say that a part of me is optimistic and wants to believe that the economy is on the up in our beloved naija.
I however know that for as long as we allow the present state of governance to continue, we'll be liike Craig David taking one step forward and two steps back. Perhaps that makes me one of those people whom you described as distrustful of the government. Yes I'll happily assent to that, their track record makes me wary of anything they produce. I'll only change my position when there is evidence to the contrary.
Now to the problem that every one knows and shouts about everyday in the streets of Lagos, Uyo and Kaduna: 'light no dey, water no dey, road no dey'. Yes those are challenges the economy faces, simple they may seem but these things are fundamental to economic development. Citibank can come and pump billions into Nigeria. What will happen to this money? Probably create credit and hopefully profit for the bank down the line. Bank no be charity na!
Problem now is who is going to stick out his neck in Nigeria to start up a business that from the outset has massive running costs (i.e generate own electricity, provide own water, safely transport goods). Perhaps you Lanre and I would cuz we're patriotic but the average Joe will run to Ghana where his operating costs are much less and profit margins bigger.
Our economy will only grow as the manufacturing sector grows. We need to put pressure on those hawks in power to give us the simple things and everything else will fall into place. The marches that have started a good. I propose we besiege the national assembly and camp out there until they provide us with simple 'light, water and road'.
Thank you OP for your optimism |
1k001
Website Member
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6/2/2010 : 3:28:54 AM
oh and about the stocks, call me cynical but I find it hard to believe the numbers on the NSE anymore. Evidence is in the banks who seemed to be flying high but crashed all of a sudden. who's to say all the other companies don't have CEO's like the banks who massage the numbers! |
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